Data Study
State-Level Race/Ethnicity Representation on Registered-Offender Registries (Exploratory, 50 States)
This report compares the race/ethnicity composition of registry listings to the race/ethnicity composition of state populations using ACS denominators. It is designed to support bias-checking questions like: "Do registries look different from the public's mental image?"
This analysis is descriptive and should be interpreted as representation within an administrative system, not as behavior or offending prevalence.
Data
- Registry listings: offender.txt (filtered to the 50 U.S. states; unit = registry record)
- Population denominators: ACS 2019–2023 5-year table B03002 (state-level)
- White non-Hispanic population: B03002_003E
- Black non-Hispanic population: B03002_004E
- Hispanic/Latino (any race): B03002_012E
- Total population: B03002_001E
Key Definitions
Registry share
(registry records in group) ÷ (all registry records in that state)
Population share
(ACS population in group) ÷ (total ACS population in that state)
Representation ratio
(Registry share) ÷ (Population share)
- 1.00 = proportional to population share
- >1.00 = over-represented among registry listings relative to population share
- <1.00 = under-represented among registry listings relative to population share
Rate per 100k
(registry records in group) ÷ (ACS population in group) × 100,000
Data Quality Note: How Registry "Race" is Coded
Registry race values are not standardized. For this report, registry race values were normalized into:
- White (e.g., "WHITE", "W", "Caucasian")
- Black (e.g., "BLACK", "B", "Black or African American")
- Hispanic (e.g., "HISPANIC", "Latino")
- Other (e.g., Asian, American Indian, etc.)
- Unknown (e.g., "U", "Unknown")
National distribution of registry-coded groups (50 states):
| Race Group | Records | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| White | 512,811 | 65.2 |
| Black | 182,044 | 23.1 |
| Hispanic | 47,053 | 6.0 |
| Other | 24,996 | 3.2 |
| Unknown | 19,923 | 2.5 |
Important: In many datasets, Hispanic ethnicity may be recorded inconsistently (sometimes as its own label, sometimes folded into race categories like White/Black). This can make "Hispanic (as recorded)" an undercount relative to ACS Hispanic population.
National Snapshot (50 States)
This is a single pooled view across the 50 states (useful for context, but state-level variation is substantial).
| Group | Registry Share | Population Share | Representation Ratio | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White vs White non-Hispanic | 65.2% | 58.2% | 1.12 | 265.6 |
| Black vs Black non-Hispanic | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.93 | 458.6 |
| Hispanic vs Hispanic (any race) | 6.0% | 19.0% | 0.31 | 74.6 |
State-Level Results: White (Registry-Coded) vs ACS White Non-Hispanic
Top 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 1.89 | 75.6 | 39.9 | 517.9 |
| NM | 1.76 | 64.3 | 36.5 | 335.9 |
| FL | 1.43 | 73.6 | 51.4 | 238.8 |
| NV | 1.40 | 64.2 | 46.0 | 318.0 |
| AZ | 1.35 | 72.1 | 53.4 | 231.7 |
| CO | 1.32 | 87.0 | 65.7 | 329.0 |
| HI | 1.24 | 26.2 | 21.1 | 264.6 |
| OK | 1.19 | 74.7 | 62.8 | 304.5 |
| MA | 1.14 | 77.3 | 67.8 | 88.5 |
| NY | 1.14 | 60.9 | 53.4 | 150.6 |
Bottom 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 0.15 | 13.5 | 90.6 | 32.0 |
| OR | 0.46 | 33.1 | 72.3 | 29.3 |
| MN | 0.68 | 52.5 | 76.7 | 33.9 |
| AK | 0.70 | 40.9 | 58.3 | 367.2 |
| SD | 0.83 | 66.4 | 80.3 | 402.9 |
| CT | 0.84 | 52.7 | 63.0 | 144.7 |
| ND | 0.85 | 70.3 | 82.5 | 302.1 |
| VA | 0.93 | 54.8 | 59.0 | 325.8 |
| LA | 0.93 | 52.4 | 56.2 | 327.1 |
| WI | 0.95 | 74.9 | 79.2 | 418.0 |
Black (Registry-Coded) vs ACS Black Non-Hispanic
Top 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT | 4.09 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1488.1 |
| WA | 3.88 | 14.8 | 3.8 | 426.4 |
| RI | 3.65 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 816.7 |
| MN | 3.40 | 22.9 | 6.7 | 168.1 |
| WI | 3.33 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 1469.5 |
| IA | 3.29 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 861.1 |
| CA | 3.10 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 743.2 |
| NJ | 3.09 | 38.0 | 12.3 | 220.7 |
| NE | 2.83 | 13.1 | 4.6 | 1033.8 |
| MA | 2.79 | 18.1 | 6.5 | 216.2 |
Bottom 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 0.37 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 80.1 |
| MS | 1.21 | 44.5 | 36.9 | 453.5 |
| AL | 1.35 | 34.9 | 25.9 | 390.7 |
| GA | 1.39 | 43.0 | 31.0 | 406.8 |
| MD | 1.42 | 41.3 | 29.2 | 206.1 |
| LA | 1.46 | 45.1 | 30.8 | 513.0 |
| SC | 1.49 | 37.3 | 25.1 | 429.2 |
| AR | 1.56 | 23.1 | 14.8 | 511.9 |
| VA | 1.57 | 28.9 | 18.4 | 550.7 |
| FL | 1.68 | 24.9 | 14.8 | 280.0 |
Hispanic (Registry-Coded) vs ACS Hispanic (Any Race)
Top 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 2.34 | 14.5 | 6.2 | 115.9 |
| CT | 1.09 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 188.6 |
| CA | 1.07 | 42.5 | 39.8 | 255.6 |
| UT | 0.88 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 321.0 |
| WA | 0.37 | 5.2 | 14.1 | 40.6 |
| NM | 0.32 | 15.5 | 48.2 | 61.5 |
| HI | 0.32 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 68.9 |
| OH | 0.31 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 66.6 |
| OK | 0.30 | 3.7 | 12.3 | 77.8 |
| IN | 0.30 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 71.7 |
Bottom 10 states by representation ratio
| State | Representation Ratio | Registry Share (%) | Population Share (%) | Rate per 100k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| WI | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.9 |
| VA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 0.3 |
| TX | 0.0 | 0.1 | 39.5 | 0.4 |
| TN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.4 |
| SD | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| SC | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.3 |
| OR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.3 | 0.2 |
| NV | 0.0 | 0.1 | 29.2 | 0.5 |
| NH | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
Interpretation Boundaries (Read Before Using Publicly)
This report does not estimate offending behavior or victimization. It measures how different groups are represented within registry listings relative to population composition.
Representation differences can reflect (non-exhaustive):
- Variation in state laws and registration requirements
- Charging practices, plea bargaining, and sentencing patterns
- Differential enforcement and compliance monitoring
- Demographic geography, housing restrictions, and mobility
- Long-term accumulation on registries
Limitations
- Registry race coding is not standardized and may mix race and ethnicity in inconsistent ways across states.
- Hispanic undercount risk: "Hispanic (as recorded)" is likely understated where Hispanic ethnicity is not consistently recorded as a distinct category.
- Registry records ≠ unique people: a registry system may include multiple records per person depending on the data structure.
- Population denominators are estimates: ACS is a survey-based estimate with margins of error (not used in this simplified analysis).
Conclusion
This exploratory analysis shows substantial variation in race/ethnicity representation patterns across U.S. states. It is intended as a descriptive resource to support bias-checking and contextual awareness, not as a statement about individual behavior or criminal justice outcomes.
Source: Linked analysis of offender.txt (50 states) and ACS 2019–2023 5-year table B03002 state population estimates.